# India Sourcing Monitor: monthly data > India Sourcing Monitor, October 2026: manufacturing PMI, WPI, rupee rates, container freight, US tariffs, compliance deadlines and factory shutdowns. Source: https://sourcesquid.co/intelligence/india-sourcing-monitor/ Edition: October 2026Data as of 28 Sep 2026Next edition: November 2026 # India Sourcing Monitor. India's factory PMI rebounded to 55.7 in September's flash reading, manufactured-goods wholesale prices rose 8.37% a year, the rupee held near 95 per US dollar, and most Indian goods entering the US carry a 10% Section 301 duty. Diwali on 8 November is the main production break before year end. A monthly data page for buyers sourcing from India, built only from public, cited sources. Every figure below links to the publication it comes from. Cite this page [Get the monthly brief](https://sourcesquid.co/services/tools-pro/) In this edition 1. Key figures 2. Trade policy 3. Compliance deadlines 4. Production shutdowns 5. What this means for buyers 6. Cite and download 7. Past editions Key figures ## Six numbers for October 2026. * Activity ### India manufacturing PMI (flash) **55.7** index, 50 = no change September 2026 (flash) +2.9 ptsvs 52.8 in August 2026 (final) August's 52.8 was the weakest improvement in five years. The September flash is based on about 80-90% of responses; the final figure is due in early October. Finished-goods stocks rose to an 11.5-year high. [Source: S&P Global, HSBC Flash India PMI (23 September 2026)](https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/699daff683d5438b869006ed67ef088e) * Prices ### WPI inflation, manufactured products **8.37%** year on year August 2026 (provisional) +0.08 ppvs 8.29% in July 2026 Manufactured products index 108.8 (base 2022-23 = 100). All-commodities WPI inflation was 9.92%. Basic metals, chemicals and food products were among the main drivers. [Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, DPIIT, WPI press release for August 2026](https://eaindustry.nic.in/press_release/press_release_202608.pdf) * Trade policy ### US additional duty on Indian goods **10%** Section 301, on top of the normal HTS rate In force since 24 July 2026 USTR applies a 10% duty to products of India entered on or after 12:01 am eastern time on 24 July 2026, with listed exemptions. Steel, aluminium and other Section 232 goods follow their own rates. A bilateral trade deal is under negotiation but not yet published. [Source: USTR notice of actions in Section 301 investigations, Federal Register, 28 July 2026](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/28/2026-15181/notice-of-actions-in-section-301-investigations-of-acts-policies-and-practices-of-various-economies) * Currency ### INR per USD, monthly average **95.47** INR per 1 USD August 2026 (20 fixings) +9.1%vs 87.52 in August 2025 Latest95.24 for 1-21 September 2026 (14 fixings) Simple average of FBIL daily reference rates. August 2026 needed 9.1% more rupees per dollar than August 2025. [Source: Financial Benchmarks India (FBIL) reference rates, successor to the RBI reference rate](https://www.fbil.org.in/#/refrates) * Currency ### INR per EUR, monthly average **110.60** INR per 1 EUR August 2026 (20 fixings) +8.6%vs 101.80 in August 2025 Latest110.24 for 1-21 September 2026 (14 fixings) Simple average of FBIL daily reference rates. August 2026 needed 8.6% more rupees per euro than August 2025. [Source: Financial Benchmarks India (FBIL) reference rates](https://www.fbil.org.in/#/refrates) * Freight ### Drewry World Container Index, composite **USD 4,468** per 40 ft container Week to 24 September 2026 down 1%on the previous week The WCI tracks East-West lanes from China. It is a market barometer, not an India-origin rate. Drewry expected rates to ease the following week as carriers blank sailings around China's Golden Week. [Source: Drewry World Container Index (24 September 2026)](https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry) Currency detail ## Rupee reference rates, monthly averages Month| INR per USD| INR per EUR| INR per GBP ---|---|---|--- August 2025| 87.52| 101.80| 117.57 Jun 2026| 94.97| 109.47| 126.70 Jul 2026| 95.82| 109.48| 128.21 Aug 2026| 95.47| 110.60| 129.19 Sep 2026 (1–21)| 95.24| 110.24| 128.48 Simple average of daily FBIL reference rates. FBIL has published India’s reference rate since July 2018, in place of the RBI reference rate. [FBIL reference rates](https://www.fbil.org.in/#/refrates). Freight detail ## Drewry WCI by lane, USD per 40 ft Lane| Rate| Week ---|---|--- Shanghai to Rotterdam| 3,485| -4% Shanghai to Genoa| 3,835| -5% Shanghai to Los Angeles| 7,838| +2% Shanghai to New York| 10,373| 0% Week to 24 September 2026. The index covers China-origin lanes and is shown as a market barometer. [Drewry](https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry) · [report](https://www.thedcn.com.au/news/world-container-index-24-september-2026). Trade policy ## What changed, market by market. Tariff and trade-agreement changes that affect goods made in India, newest first. 1. 25 Sep 2026US ### India-US trade deal close, says India's commerce minister Reported Piyush Goyal described the bilateral deal as almost done and said India would travel to the US for the G20 trade ministers' meeting on 30 September to 1 October, with a meeting planned with the US Trade Representative. No tariff figures were announced. Until a text is published, plan landed costs on the 10% Section 301 duty. [Source: Business Today, 25 September 2026](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/india-us-trade-deal-almost-done-and-dusted-says-piyush-goyal-557724-2026-09-25) 2. September 2026EU ### EU-India trade agreement sent to the Council for signature In progress The European Commission put forward its proposals for signature in September 2026. Negotiations concluded in January 2026. The agreement enters into force only after signature, European Parliament consent, Council conclusion and India's ratification, so EU import duties on Indian goods are unchanged for now. [Source: European Commission, the EU-India trade agreement](https://commission.europa.eu/topics/trade/eu-india-trade-agreement_en) 3. 15 Aug 2026US ### US safeguard on quartz surface products In force Proclamation 11051 applies a four-year tariff-rate quota to quartz surface products (HTSUS 6810.99.0020, 6810.99.0040 and 7020.00.6000) from 15 August 2026. India is not among the listed excluded countries. [Source: Federal Register, Proclamation 11051, 5 August 2026](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/08/05/2026-15975/to-facilitate-positive-adjustment-to-competition-from-imports-of-quartz-surface-products) 4. 24 Jul 2026US ### 10% Section 301 duty on products of India In force Applies to goods entered on or after 24 July 2026, with exemptions listed in the notice's annexes. India qualified for the lower 10% rate, rather than 12.5%, after adopting a forced-labour import prohibition. [Source: Federal Register, 28 July 2026](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/28/2026-15181/notice-of-actions-in-section-301-investigations-of-acts-policies-and-practices-of-various-economies) 5. 15 Jul 2026UK ### UK-India trade agreement in force In force UK importers can claim preferential duty on qualifying Indian goods with an origin declaration, a certificate of origin or importer's knowledge. [Source: UK Integrated Online Tariff, 13 July 2026](https://www.trade-tariff.service.gov.uk/news/stories/india-free-trade-agreement-enters-into-force-on-15-july-2026--13-july-2026) 6. 20 Apr 2026US ### Refunds of IEEPA duties through CBP's CAPE process Open After the IEEPA tariffs ended, CBP opened a consolidated refund process (CAPE) in ACE. Only the importer of record or its licensed customs broker can file. [Source: US Customs and Border Protection, IEEPA duty refunds](https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds) Compliance ## Deadlines in the next 90 days. EU, UK and US rules with a dated step between 1 Oct 2026 and 31 Dec 2026, plus the first dates just beyond the window. Date| Rule| What happens| Who it affects ---|---|---|--- 5 Oct 2026 | EU [CBAM](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/cbam/) | **Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price published.** The quarterly price applies to embedded emissions in goods imported in Q3 2026. The Q2 2026 price was EUR 75.28 per tonne CO2e. [Source](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/price-cbam-certificates_en) | EU importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen above 50 tonnes a year 30 Dec 2026 | EU [EUDR](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/eudr/) | **EU Deforestation Regulation applies to large and medium operators.** Covers cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soy, wood and rubber and listed derived products. Micro and small operators follow on 30 June 2027, except those already covered by the EU Timber Regulation, who comply from 30 December 2026. [Source](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/12/18/deforestation-council-signs-off-targeted-revision-to-simplify-and-postpone-the-regulation/) | EU operators placing cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soy, wood or rubber products on the market 31 Dec 2026 | EU [PPWR](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/ppwr/) | **Recycled-content calculation method due.** The Commission must adopt the implementing acts for calculating and verifying recycled content in plastic packaging by this date. PPWR itself has applied since 12 August 2026. [Source](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/40/oj/eng) | Brands placing plastic packaging on the EU market 1 Jan 2027Just beyond | UK [CBAM](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/cbam/) | **UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism starts.** Importers must register once CBAM goods reach GBP 50,000 in a 30-day period or a rolling 12 months. Goods imported before 1 January 2027 do not count towards the threshold. [Source](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/work-out-the-date-youll-need-to-register-for-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-cbam) | UK importers of CBAM goods 1 Jan 2027Just beyond | EU [CBAM](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/cbam/) | **Quarterly CBAM certificate holding begins.** From 2027, at the end of each quarter, a declarant must hold certificates covering at least 50% of embedded emissions imported since the start of the year. Certificate sales open on 1 February 2027. [Source](http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/2083/oj) | Authorised CBAM declarants Already in force * EU[PPWR](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/ppwr/) since 12 Aug 2026: Packaging conformity, PFAS limits for food-contact packaging and importer marking. [Source](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2025/40/oj/eng) * US[UFLPA](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/uflpa/) since 31 Jul 2026: 43 companies added to the UFLPA Entity List, mainly aluminium, apparel, cotton and tomato sectors. [Source](https://www.cov.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/2026/08/dhs-expands-uflpa-entity-list-amid-intensifying-enforcement-landscape) * USNo new US compliance deadline in our tracked rules falls between October and December 2026. UFLPA enforcement continues. [Weekly updates on the Compliance Radar](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/radar/) Production shutdowns ## Festival and holiday breaks, October to December. Public holidays that slow or stop factories in China, India and Vietnam over the next 90 days. Plan inspections and ship dates around them. * 1–7 Oct 2026 **National Day / Golden Week** China · NationwideSaturday 10 October is a make-up working day. Expect slowdowns either side of the week. [Source](https://en.bjhd.gov.cn/workinginhaidian/supportingservices/publicholidays/202512/t20251211_4797062.shtml) * 2 Oct 2026 **Gandhi Jayanti** India · National holiday [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 18–20 Oct 2026 **Durga Puja** India · East India, especially West Bengal, Odisha, Assam and Bihar [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 20 Oct 2026 **Dussehra** India · Across India [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 8–11 Nov 2026 **Diwali** India · Across IndiaGovardhan Puja is 9 November and Bhai Duj 11 November. Many factories close for several days to a week. [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 15 Nov 2026 **Chhath Puja** India · Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Delhi NCRMigrant workers travelling home can slow NCR and other clusters in the weeks after Diwali. [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 24 Nov 2026 **Guru Nanak Jayanti** India · Across India, especially Punjab, Haryana and Delhi [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) * 24 Nov 2026 **Vietnamese Culture Day** Vietnam · Nationwide (proposed, not yet confirmed) [Source](https://www.vietnam.vn/en/bo-noi-vu-de-xuat-ngay-van-hoa-viet-nam-2026-nghi-1-ngay-theo-quy-dinh) * 25 Dec 2026 **Christmas** India · Across India [Source](https://www.staffnews.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Holidays-to-be-observed-in-Central-Government-Offices-during-the-year-2026.pdf) Looking ahead ### Chinese New Year and Tet 2027 Lunar New Year's Day is 6 February 2027. China's statutory break is expected to be 5-8 February, and many factories close for 2-4 weeks. Vietnam's proposed civil-service Tet break is 4-10 February. Plan pre-holiday production to finish and ship by mid-January. [Source](https://www.gov.hk/en/about/abouthk/holiday/2027.htm) [Plan a production run around holidays](https://sourcesquid.co/tools/festival-and-holiday-planner/) What this means for buyers ## Six moves for this quarter. SourceSquid’s reading of the figures above. This section is analysis, not data; the numbers it uses are cited above. 1. 01 ### Book Q4 capacity before Diwali The flash PMI rebounded to 55.7 in September and factories reported finished-goods stocks at an 11.5-year high, which points to available capacity. Place orders that must ship this year before Diwali on 8 November, and allow for a week of lost output around it. 2. 02 ### Expect price requests on metal and chemical parts Manufactured-goods wholesale prices rose 8.37% a year in August, with basic metals and chemicals among the drivers. Ask suppliers to link increases to a named input index, not to accept open-ended revisions. 3. 03 ### The rupee works in your favour August needed about 9% more rupees per US dollar and per euro than a year earlier. Rupee-denominated quotes from last year may have room to move. Ask for quotes in INR and USD so you can see the currency effect. 4. 04 ### Price US landed cost at 10% until a deal is published Most Indian goods pay a 10% Section 301 duty on top of the normal HTS rate. Talks on a bilateral deal continue. Model 10% now and re-run landed cost the day a text is published. 5. 05 ### UK buyers: claim the new preference The UK-India agreement has been in force since 15 July 2026. Claiming the preference needs proof of origin: an origin declaration, a certificate of origin or importer's knowledge. EU buyers can prepare the same evidence now, as the EU-India agreement moves to signature. 6. 06 ### Freight is easing but uneven The Drewry composite fell 1% to USD 4,468 per 40 ft, with Asia-Europe lanes lower and US lanes firmer. The index tracks China-origin lanes, so ask your forwarder for India-origin quotes and book US-bound space early. Cite this ## Quote the Monitor with its edition and date. SourceSquid (2026). India Sourcing Monitor, Edition: October 2026. Data as of 28 September 2026. https://sourcesquid.co/intelligence/india-sourcing-monitor/ Journalists and researchers are welcome to quote these figures with a link to this page. Please also cite the original source linked next to each figure. Method ## How the Monitor is built * Figures come from primary publications: S&P Global, India’s Office of the Economic Adviser, FBIL, Drewry, the US Federal Register, the European Commission, GOV.UK and official holiday notices. * Currency figures are simple monthly means of the daily FBIL reference rates published in each month. * Flash and provisional figures are labelled and replaced by final figures in the next edition. * Compliance dates come from the legal texts and official guidance behind our [compliance guides](https://sourcesquid.co/compliance/). * Updated monthly. Corrections: [anirudh@sourcesquid.co](mailto:anirudh@sourcesquid.co). Past editions ## Archive 1. 2026-10**October 2026** Current edition · data as of 28 Sep 2026 October 2026 is the first edition. Each month the previous edition’s figures move here, with their sources. Sourcing from India? ## Turn the numbers into a sourcing plan. Send one drawing, photo or quote. 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